POWERED BY UBM ELECTRONICS
We worry a lot about Moore’s Law running out of gas right about now. Now comes former AMD CEO Hector Ruiz with this piece on Harvard Business Review’s blog: “There, however, is a possible “off-ramp” to Moore’s Law that offers [...]
LOS ANGELES–So often, we get ahead of ourselves a consuming public, especially when it comes to technology innovation. Take power generation and smart-grid management. We know that electronics that drive enormous efficiency gains on the grid. After all, our smart [...]
By Malcolm Fuller, contributing writer SANTA CLARA, Calif. – You wake up in your chilly San Francisco apartment (or any chilly place for that matter), and your first instinct is not to crank up the thermostat several notches (too expensive!). [...]
By Brian Fuller We’ve written all lot about the quickening pace of innovation in automotive electronics design. And you’ll recall the centerpiece of the first part of the Drive for Innovation was an all-electric Chevy Volt, which took us around [...]
If this is an EV tipping point, are we at the cliff’s edge?
18 June 2012
We hear a lot about the tipping point for electric vehicles. Engineers have solved the problem, if not the economics.
But when a gallon of gas, at $3.75 (give or take), offers 70 times more energy density than the equivalent lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery (at 400 pounds), it may be time to reset our electric-vehicle expectations. 
This may be happening all over the world right now (I know what you're thinking: "Well, duh!" But remember most of the world's policy makers aren't engineers and will never be confused with engineers).
Tough sell
My colleague Chuck Murray at Design News points out that China's having a tough time with the EV sell. This from a country that can uproot millions of people (millions) to build the world's biggest dam.
Sales of the Chevy Volt in 2012 are–halfway through this year–about to eclipse Volt sales for all of 2011. But Volt and Nissan Leaf sales have disappointed supporters in general.
Even the most ardent EV supporters today acknowledge we're in the baby-steps phase. It's early in the transition and in the evolution of the technology.
In an encouraging sign, Chevrolet announced that the 2013 Volt will get roughly 10 percent farther range off its Li-ion battery technology. This increase is, perhaps not surprisingly, because the battery manufacturer, LG Chem, increased the battery's capacity by a little more than 3 percent.
We often, as a culture, get swept up in the hope of technology. Consumers get swept up because EV technology is cleaner, hipper and will get us out of Middle Eastern wars. And many technologists and engineers get swept up because a thorny problem has been solved.
Reality bites
And confronting the reality is difficult. First off, energy transitions take time, as University of Manitoba professor points out, writing about the "great energy delusion."
Then, when it comes to EVs, there's the fact that range anxiety is skewing engineering decisions, according to a former director for battery maker Axion Power.
Lastly, it's dawning on us that the subsidies being flung at the infrastructure, auto makers and battery manufacturers are really helping facilitate cars that only the extremely wealthy can afford, according to Steven Kopits, writing in Foreign Policy.
So what's your take? Full steam ahead? Cautious but continual development? Or abandon this path and start looking at more diesel and natural-gas fueled vehicle designs?
Glenn G June 26, 2012 at 9:07 am
“In an encouraging sign, Chevrolet announced that the 2013 Volt will get roughly 10 percent farther range off its Li-ion battery technology.” 3 – 4 Miles? Encouraging? I, for one, am not encouraged by that. I agree with the other posted comment. We will eventually run out of fossil fuel. Full steam ahead on alternative energy sources.
Bill June 26, 2012 at 9:52 am
Professor Smil’s article is very interesting and should be used to lay a realistic base for energy policy discussion. Instead we have blithering idiots at the forefront and making policy decisions who are working a political angle, either on the take or paying back donors. The taxpayer gets the bill. The American citizen has wondered for 40 years where the priority went to stop buying Arab Oil.Solar power is anemic when trying to produce electricity, still stuck at 16% efficiency for any product only the well-off consumer can afford, and solar would be better off being used for roof-top circulating water heating systems, heating water comprising at times 40% of a home’s energy bill.No, it’s not FACT that the petroleum reserves will run dry. In the 30′s they taught in schools that there was only enough oil in the planet to last for 50 years. 80 years later we have more proven reserves than ever. The old theory that oil comes from compressed dinosaurs never made sense and is being replaced by the realization that crude is a product of natural earth and geological processes, with evidence of crude on other bodies in our solar system where presumably dinosaurs never lived. Crude is being pumped from earth depths where geologists acknowledge that dinosaur remains do not exist or would leach to. Nonetheless a continually upward spiral of demand for crude would make it more and more expensive. Before that point is reached natural gas and already proven processes will take a larger role as they are competitively cost viable. What happened to fuel cell powered cars whose only emission is droplets of water?You wouldn’t think I would be one of the first in my state to buy an electric-only car, but there you go. It will make sense for me, and cents, although return on investment will be years unless gas jumps over $4 and keeps climbing.
Peter June 26, 2012 at 9:55 am
1. Contrary to “the petrobucket will run dry”, known oil & natural gas reserves are still growing every year, so it will be at least a century before the bucket runs dry. 2. The cost of EVs has never considered the infrastructure cost of upgrading amperage, power lines, transformers, etc., needed in every neighborhood to be able to charge a bunch of EVs.3. Further, would someone tell me what the mileage of an EV is in winter in Minnesota (and other northern states), and the mileage in Texas in summer? Apparently, this information is purposely withheld from the population. If we’re developing federal policy, spending tax money, would someone explain why we hide truth. Some suggest there are “simple low cost solutions” to the mileage problems, so, OK what are these solutions?I am confident that natural gas vehicles will do very well, but battery powered open vehicles (golf carts) can be used to get you to the grocery store and the 18th hole, but not much else.
Harold E. Ruark June 26, 2012 at 10:13 am
I completely agree with Jerry. We have had a electric vehicle club in the Seattle area for over 20 years and some of the very simple solutions (no PC’s involved with vehicle control) have proven bullet proof and very economical to use. Even with the modern Lead/acid batteries, several members of the club get about 60 miles on a overnite charge, which is enough to cover a fair inter-urban use range. These vehicles cost less than $10K for simple junk-car conversions. Detroit needs to take a look at the old “Grandma’s Electric” for some simpler, kinder and far less costly propulsion
Patrick Harris June 27, 2012 at 9:14 am
Let’s go with more diesel and natural-gas fueled vehicle designs. These are proven technologies and have the range Americans want. Stop wasting taxpayer dollars. We tend to think we are the world. If EV technology was so great, Germany or Japan would have scrapped the ICE long ago. Japan imports virtually all it’s oil, so they have a vested interest. Also, most EV proponents are anti-nuclear, which is the only environmentally benign method to provide the needed base load capacity to charge millions of golf carts, I mean EVs.
William Ketel June 28, 2012 at 7:22 pm
The very best efficiency improvement is already defined, which is the switch off-switch-on car. Driven by an attentive driver it is easy to double my miles per gallon, and do even better than that with a bit more effort. And the best part is that it takes NO NEW TECHNOLOGY!! the closest thing to new is a direct drive alternator that doubles as a starter. The other tricky thing is a clutch to let the engine stop turning when it is switched off. The downside is that it does make driving a full time job, which means that the phone-clone population will never be able to make it work. But the manual version is simple and cheap and doubles the MPG in city driving without any great effort at all.
Leave a Reply
*Required
-
HP 3PAR StoreServ 7000
The world’s most advanced storage platform has extended its midrange offerings, delivering effortless, efficient, bulletproof, and future proof storage to the entire midrange. Store all of your data on a single system that supports advanced features, such as storage federation and automated tiering, and which enables you to start small and grow without disruption.
-
Advantech RISC Computing Platforms
UBC-DS31 is powered by a Freescale ARM Cortex-A9 i.MX6 dual core processor, with 1GB DDR3 memory & 4GB flash onboard. It has 2D and 3D graphics built in, and supports dual displays with up to 1080p high resolution output on low power consumption.
Don Morgan June 18, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Full steam ahead on all energy sources. Eventually the petro bucket will run dry, FACT!. Lets not wait until it does to develop a solution. Every time we have a gas “crunch” either in supply or price, alternative fuels become popular but as soon as the “crisis” in averted, we’ re back to same old same old. Funny how this happens around election time?